ScienceOpened Jul 27 · Results Jul 27

Will the 3:15 PM advisory on July 27 list Genevieve as 'Huracán categoría 4'?

31%

Stable · last 24h

📊 10 bettors💎 290 at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 27

🤖 Context

YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) posts a tropical-cyclone advisory on its official advisory page issued at 3:15 PM on July 27, 2026 (local time, CDT), or the first SMN tropical-cyclone advisory posted at or after that exact timestamp, and that advisory explicitly lists Hurricane Genevieve's current intensity in its "Situación Actual" or equivalent section as the Spanish phrase "Huracán categoría 4". If SMN posts multiple advisories at the same timestamp, use the advisory file posted first by SMN. If the advisory reports only numeric sustained-wind values without an explicit category label, this market resolves NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

31%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 69% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: The SMN advisory page (Emisión: 2026-07-27 21:00) is the first SMN tropical-cyclone advisory posted at or after 2026-07-27T15:15:00-05:00. Its "Situación Actual" section contains explicit wording that lists Genevieve as a category-4 hurricane, e.g. “El huracán Genevieve como categoría 4, continúa alejándose…”, and the table’s comments row reads “El huracán categoría 4 Genevieve continuará alejándose…”, which includes the phrase “huracán categoría 4.”

Source: smn.conagua.gob.mx