Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

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63%
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YES if, no later than December 15, 2026, the final approved Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación 2027 shows a line-item allocation to the Secretaría de Marina (SEMAR) equal to or greater than 81,223,000,000 Mexican pesos as printed in the official approved budget text. The official approved budget text and vote record published by the H. Cámara de Diputados and the final law published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación (DOF) are the authoritative sources. Use the single SEMAR allocation as printed in the official approved document and do not sum separate supplementary documents; if the Chamber approves one figure and the Senate later changes it, the DOF-published final allocation is decisive.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Dec 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 6 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe budget's approval for SEMAR seems solid given that the deadline is still a few months away. Expect it to meet or exceed that figure by December.

38%
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83%
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22%
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69%
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30%
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30%
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