Will TikTok publicly admit it deliberately excluded about 15 million accounts from the safer-algorithm update?

15%
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63%
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Resolved: No
Results Aug 1This market will resolve to 'YES' if the MTV Video Music Awards announce their nominees by August 1, 2026, and 'NO' if they announce them after that date.
How markets are built and settled63%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent sources in the supplied evidence, all dated before Aug 1, 2026, explicitly state that the 2026 VMA nominees had not been announced and that additional information would be released later. TVInsider (2026-04-16) says “Nominees have not yet been announced,” GoldDerby (2026-07-18) notes the nominations are “about a month away,” and the CBS/Paramount press page (July 2026; featured release dated 2026-07-27) says additional information will be announced at a later date. None of the provided pages contains an announcement of the 2026 VMA nominees on or before 2026-08-01, so the nominees were not announced by that deadline according to the supplied evidence.
Source: paramountpressexpress.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledYes. It is likely that MTV will announce the nominees for the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards before August 1, 2026, although it has not yet been confirmed.

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