Will TikTok publicly admit it deliberately excluded about 15 million accounts from the safer-algorithm update?

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YES if, no later than October 15, 2026, Spain's CNMC publicly announces via an official CNMC press release, a posting on its official website, or publication in the BOE that it has opened a formal administrative sanction proceeding ('expediente sancionador') naming Susana Molina for alleged breaches of influencer-ad rules. Preferably this is corroborated by at least one major Spanish news outlet (EFE, RTVE, El País, El Mundo). If the CNMC only sent an information request, guidance, or an informal letter and did not open a formal expediente sancionador by that date, NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against huffingtonpost.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 52%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledA formal sanction proceeding against Susana Molina seems likely, especially with the CNMC's recent scrutiny of influencer advertising. Expect an announcement well before the deadline.

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