Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

93%
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86%
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YES if Steven Kruijswijk is recorded by the race organiser or by the UCI as having started at least one stage of the 2026 Vuelta a España, which runs from 22 August to 13 September 2026. "Recorded as having started" means the organiser's official stage start lists or the official stage results show Kruijswijk departing a stage start, or show him with a time/placing or a DNF/OTL for that stage. If the 2026 Vuelta is cancelled in its entirety before any stage starts, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 86%, based on 40 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the date and his past participation, it’s likely that Kruijswijk will take the start. The Vuelta is notorious for unexpected withdrawals, but he has a solid chance here.

93%
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57%
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52%
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21%
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76%
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