Will Carlos Alcaraz win the US Open men's singles?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 28YES if the Ligue Nationale de Rugby publishes an official disciplinary decision or press release on its website that, as a result of the appeal heard on July 28, explicitly states the €2,880,000 sanction on Stade Toulousain has been cancelled or reduced to €0. If the Ligue Nationale de Rugby posts no such decision by 8:00 PM on July 28, 2026, a signed official decision posted on the Fédération Française de Rugby website that clearly states the fine has been reduced to €0 will also count for YES. Only formal decision texts or press releases on those two organisations' websites count. Media articles, press-aggregator pages, or social media posts alone do not count. If an official text states a reduction but gives no monetary figure, that is NOT a full annulment and the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled15%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: All supplied sources report that the Stade Toulousain appeal was heard on 28 July 2026 but that the appeals commission’s decision would be rendered later (reports state the verdict is expected at the end of August). None of the provided pages contain any official statement from the Fédération Française de Rugby or the Ligue Nationale de Rugby saying the €2,880,000 sanction was cancelled/reduced to €0 on 28 July 2026. The La Dépêche article (published 2026-07-28) explicitly says the decision will be made at the end of August, which is positive evidence that no cancellation was announced by 20:00 on 2026-07-28.
Source: lequipe.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledno way they let the toulouse fine drop to zero. the league loves their money way too much. 💸

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