Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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44%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than 23:59 on August 15, 2026 (Central European Summer Time), Stade Français or French law enforcement publicly confirms that the ransom demanded by the hackers was paid in whole or in part. YES also if major wire services (AFP, Reuters) or major French national outlets (for example L'Équipe, Le Monde, Franceinfo) publish corroborated reports quoting the club or law enforcement that a payment was made and that the payment date was on or before August 15, 2026. Uncorroborated claims from the hackers or anonymous sources do not count, but documentary evidence published later proving the payment was executed on or before the deadline also counts as YES.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 30 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledNot likely. With just a week left and no solid confirmation from credible sources yet, it seems the Stade Français will avoid admitting to any ransom payment.

94%
+1% last 24h

32%
Stable · last 24h

84%
Stable · last 24h

68%
Stable · last 24h

44%
Stable · last 24h

25%
Stable · last 24h
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