Will the Russian vessel seized by Norway be returned to Russian custody?

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73%
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YES if, no later than December 31, 2026, the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) publicly files formal criminal charges in a court record that name specific naval officers (mandos de la Secretaría de Marina) in a criminal case connected to the Tampico/Tamaulipas fuel seizures or the huachicol investigations referenced in the source, or if at least two independent Mexican national news outlets report that the FGR has filed such formal charges naming naval officers. Military disciplinary actions, administrative measures, or press accusations without a formal FGR criminal filing do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Jan 3, 2027. The outcome will be settled against eluniversal.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 73%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI think formal charges against naval officers will happen. The timeframe is tight, but the FGR has a strong incentive to act on this investigation before the end of the year.

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60%
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37%
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17%
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50%
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