Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

73%
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57%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 11YES if the central Government of Spain publishes no later than August 10, 2026 an official press release or statement on La Moncloa's website or on a central ministry website that explicitly acknowledges Ceuta's 4 August request that "el Estado actúe ya" and announces at least one concrete measure to address the migrant situation in Ceuta. A concrete measure must be one of the following: (1) deployment of named security or emergency units to Ceuta with deployment orders, numbers, or destinations; (2) allocation of a specified emergency financial assistance package for Ceuta with an amount or funding mechanism; or (3) an official repatriation/returns operation plan including numbers or a timetable. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settled57%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 57% sure, and they got it wrong.
Given the urgency of Ceuta's request, I expect an official announcement before the deadline. The government tends to act under pressure, so I’d say yes, it’s likely they'll respond.

73%
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74%
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94%
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95%
+1% last 24h

40%
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65%
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