Will DeepSeek's market share be above 23.5%?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 1YES if an official announcement is made that SpaceX will be added to a major U.S. equity index (such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq‑100) by or on July 31, 2026; NO otherwise.
How markets are built and settled34%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent, credible news outlets in the supplied evidence report an official Nasdaq announcement that SpaceX (SPCX) would be added to a major U.S. index — the Nasdaq-100 — with inclusion effective the week of July 7, 2026. For example, CNBC (2026-06-26) reported Nasdaq announced SpaceX qualifies for Nasdaq-100 inclusion and would join before trading on July 7; Reuters (2026-07-07) reported SpaceX’s swift addition to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7; Quartz and SpotGamma likewise reported Nasdaq confirmation and the July-7 entry. Because three or more independent credible sources corroborate the same dated outcome, the market condition is satisfied and the correct resolution is YES.
Source: reuters.comSources used to resolve this market
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