Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?

🤖 Context

YES if Sophie Adenot physically lands or returns to Earth while inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule no later than September 30, 2026 (UTC), according to official mission or agency statements or mainstream reporting, preferably NASA or SpaceX press statements or mission status pages. If she lands after that UTC instant, or lands aboard any other spacecraft or platform, the market resolves NO. If multiple reputable sources report different UTC landing times, use the earliest official timestamp published by NASA or SpaceX to decide.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 35%, based on 18 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

35%

Predictions made

18

Credits staked

470

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 6, 2026

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 30, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 35% and NO 65%, based on 18 predictions and 470 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth inside a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.