Will Sophie Adenot have returned to Earth?

🤖 Context

YES if an official mission statement, mission status update, or press release from the spacecraft operator or a space agency (preferably ESA or NASA), or multiple major news agencies, report that Sophie Adenot physically returned to Earth with a confirmed landing or splashdown no later than September 30, 2026. An attempted or aborted return that did not result in a confirmed landing or splashdown does not count. If authoritative sources disagree on the landing date/time, prefer the spacecraft operator's or ESA/NASA official record.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 36%, based on 27 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

36%

Predictions made

27

Credits staked

943

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 20, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 36% and NO 64%, based on 27 predictions and 943 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot have returned to Earth?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot have returned to Earth?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.