Will Sophie Adenot complete at least three spacewalks outside the ISS during the same mission?

🤖 Context

YES if official NASA or ESA EVA logs, ISS mission status reports, or agency press releases show Sophie Adenot exited the ISS airlock and performed extravehicular activity on at least three distinct dates no later than September 30, 2026. Aborted EVAs where no crew member exited the airlock do not count. If an EVA spans UTC date boundaries, agencies' official UTC timestamps converted to CEST are used to determine whether it falls on or before the cutoff.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 30, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 71%, based on 55 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

71%

Predictions made

55

Credits staked

1,631

Comments

2

Opened

Aug 29, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 30, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 30, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 71% and NO 29%, based on 55 predictions and 1.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot complete at least three spacewalks outside the ISS during the same mission?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot complete at least three spacewalks outside the ISS during the same mission?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.