Will Sophie Adenot be back on Earth?

🤖 Context

YES if no later than September 30, 2026, an official public record from NASA, SpaceX, CNES, or a major wire service (for example Reuters or the Associated Press) states that Sophie Adenot has physically returned to Earth, explicitly described as 'landed', 'splashdown', or 'returned to Earth'. Otherwise NO. Undocking without a landing or splashdown confirmation by that deadline is NO, and private uncorroborated social media posts do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against numerama.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 32%, based on 14 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

32%

Predictions made

14

Credits staked

465

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 3, 2026

Closes

Sep 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 1, 2026

Resolution source

numerama.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 32% and NO 68%, based on 14 predictions and 465 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against numerama.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Sophie Adenot be back on Earth?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Sophie Adenot be back on Earth?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.