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Will at least 21,200 bets be placed on Clutch on September 4 (UTC)?
63%
Stable · last 24h
489 bets · 15.8K credits2
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OtherOpened Jul 21 · Results Jul 22
Will SNCF pile up at least 31 hours of cumulated train delay by Wednesday 22 July afternoon?
50%
Stable · last 24h
📊 573 bettors💎 18.3K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 22🤖 Context
YES if, according to the SNCF real-time open-data feed (dataset "horaires-sncf") on the French government transport data portal, the sum of delays at 14:50 CEST on Wednesday 22 July 2026 for all trains listed as 5 or more minutes late is greater than or equal to 31.0 hours. The resolver will read the feed's numeric per-train delay values at that exact timestamp, or if that timestamp is not available it will use the first snapshot published at or after 14:50 CEST. If the dataset is permanently discontinued or no per-train delay data is available so the aggregate cannot be computed the market will be void.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No50%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 50% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: the aggregated sum (in hours) of per-train delays for all trains listed as >=5 minutes late at 2026-07-22T14:50:00+02:00 (or the first snapshot published at or after that timestamp) must be >= 31.0 hours. Target instant UTC = 2026-07-22T12:50:00Z. Observed snapshot (from supplied data): retrieved at 2026-07-22T13:23:00Z, which is after the target (so qualifies as the first subsequent available reading). Observed aggregated delay = 21.9 hours across 74 trains >=5 min late. Comparison: 21.9 hours < 31.0 hours, so the condition is not met. Therefore outcome NO.
Source: clutch.vipKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 50%
- Predictions made
- 573
- Credits staked
- 18,349
- Comments
- 5
- Opened
- Jul 21, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 22, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 22, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- clutch.vip
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 5 comments
- 🌱@carpille🥇Bet Yes· 50 💎
FFP
- 🐼@milan.ace🥈Bet Yes· 45 💎
@bart tu connais rien au train toi
- 🏆@bart_2a💠Bet No· 100 💎
Non - et si ça arrive, ce serait un record historique.
- 😈@celian🥇Bet Yes· 25 💎
Un grand OUI 🤦🏼
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh yeah, we'll definitely be over 31 hours of delays. it's the SNCF, after all. they might as well just schedule a permanent siesta. 😂
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