Will Shishaldin reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program's public record shows that at any time strictly after 00:00 on August 15, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 on August 18, 2026 the official Volcano Alert Level for Shishaldin was published as "WATCH" (heightened alert) or "WARNING" (top alert, eruption imminent). Otherwise NO. Resolution will use USGS public notices (e.g., HANS or volcano updates); independent contemporaneous reporting that explicitly cites USGS is acceptable.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026. The outcome will be settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 76%, based on 14 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

76%

Predictions made

14

Credits staked

335

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 15, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 18, 2026

Resolution source

volcanoes.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 18, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 76% and NO 24%, based on 14 predictions and 335 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Shishaldin reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Shishaldin reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.