Will Shishaldin drop back to 'NORMAL' (back to normal)?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS Volcano Hazards Program's official record shows Shishaldin was assigned the alert level 'NORMAL' (back to normal) at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on August 23, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 26, 2026. Preferred sources are USGS Volcano Notification Service notices or the USGS 'volcano updates' listing, and contemporaneous independent reporting that explicitly cites a USGS alert-level change may be used as corroboration. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

43%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

106

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 22, 2026

Closes

Aug 23, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 26, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 43% and NO 57%, based on 8 predictions and 106 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Shishaldin drop back to 'NORMAL' (back to normal)?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Shishaldin drop back to 'NORMAL' (back to normal)?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.