Will Shishaldin be raised to 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (Alaska Volcano Observatory) lists Shishaldin Volcano's Alert Level as 'WATCH' or 'WARNING' at any time on or after 00:00 UTC on September 1, 2026, and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 4, 2026. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026. The outcome will be settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 22%, based on 13 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

22%

Predictions made

13

Credits staked

385

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 31, 2026

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 4, 2026

Resolution source

volcanoes.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 22% and NO 78%, based on 13 predictions and 385 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against volcanoes.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Shishaldin be raised to 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Shishaldin be raised to 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.