Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

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YES if the FIA's official qualifying classification for the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix on 22 August 2026 lists Sergio Pérez or Valtteri Bottas in positions 1–15. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against espn.com.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 36%, based on 38 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith about a week to go, both drivers have a solid chance to qualify in the top 15 given their recent performances. I'd bet on at least one of them making it.

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61%
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37%
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65%
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