Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
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64%
Stable · last 24h
YES if no later than September 5 Rubén Rocha Moya files or publicly announces a formal written 'solicitud de licencia' (an explicit request for temporary leave from the office of Governor of Sinaloa). Evidence can be an official publication or press release from the Gobierno del Estado de Sinaloa or the Congreso del Estado de Sinaloa, or credible reporting by two or more independent Mexican or international news outlets that explicitly state a formal leave request was filed or announced. Informal remarks, leaks, expressions of intent, or a resignation not described as a 'solicitud de licencia' count as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against comunicacionsocial.diputados.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 64%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt Rocha Moya will file a formal request in the next two weeks. Given the current political climate, it seems more likely he’ll delay or avoid it altogether.

10%
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62%
Stable · last 24h

34%
Stable · last 24h

33%
Stable · last 24h

37%
Stable · last 24h

78%
-3% last 24h
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