Will Mercedes be first in the constructors' standings after the Dutch GP on August 23?

94%
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71%
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YES if the race organiser records Richard Carapaz as having taken the official start of Stage 1 of the 2026 Vuelta a España on 22 August 2026. That means he appears on the organiser's official Stage 1 start list and is not listed as 'DNS', or the organiser's official Stage 1 results show him with a finishing time or recorded as 'DNF'. The market resolves based on the race organiser's official documents, with the UCI results feed and major cycling outlets allowed for corroboration. If Stage 1 is cancelled before any official start list is published the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lequipe.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 71%, based on 7 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only 8 days to go, the odds are still good for Carapaz starting Stage 1. The solid cycling news sources show no indications of injury or DNS, so he should be on that list.

94%
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64%
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83%
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60%
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68%
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43%
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