Will residents in Castilla y León be ordered to evacuate because of wildfires or heat-related fires?

🤖 Context

YES if a municipal, provincial, or autonomous-community authority with jurisdiction in Castilla y León publicly publishes an official mandatory evacuation order dated no later than August 25, 2026 that explicitly cites wildfires, fire risk, or heat-related fires as the reason. This includes mandatory evacuation orders, evacuation decrees, or equivalent instructions directing inhabitants to leave their homes. Resolution will be based on the issuing authority's publication or on reports from two independent Spanish national or regional news outlets (for example EFE, RTVE, El País).

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

30%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

195

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 18, 2026

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 26, 2026

Resolution source

efe.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 30% and NO 70%, based on 8 predictions and 195 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against efe.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will residents in Castilla y León be ordered to evacuate because of wildfires or heat-related fires?” real-money betting?

No. “Will residents in Castilla y León be ordered to evacuate because of wildfires or heat-related fires?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.