Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

47%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the national 30-day trailing average for the "2026 generic congressional ballot" on September 21, 2026 shows the Republican percentage strictly greater than the Democratic percentage (R > D). We will use VoteHub's published daily aggregate for that date when available, otherwise we will use same-day 30-day national generic-ballot averages from other major poll aggregators or mainstream outlets (for example FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics). If a source publishes only a margin, a positive Republican margin counts as YES, a zero margin counts as NO, and a negative Republican margin counts as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against votehub.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current polling with Republicans at 35.4% and Democrats at 41.2%, it's hard to see a turnaround in two weeks. Republicans likely won't lead on September 21.

47%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

79%
Stable · last 24h

42%
Stable · last 24h

47%
Stable · last 24h

85%
+6% last 24h
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