Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

69%
Stable · last 24h

47%
Stable · last 24h
YES if an official appointment or decree is published no later than October 15, 2026 showing Rachida Dati has been placed in a magistrate position or formally reinstated into the corps of magistrates. Acceptable evidence includes an official publication such as the Journal officiel or Legifrance, an announcement from the Ministry of Justice / Chancellerie, or multiple reliable national news outlets explicitly citing that official publication. Informal statements, party communications, blogs, or reports of an intention do not count.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 47%, based on 22 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledDati's chances look slim unless an official decree comes soon. With only 40 days left, it's hard to see that happening given the lack of recent momentum.

69%
Stable · last 24h

33%
Stable · last 24h

56%
Stable · last 24h

15%
Stable · last 24h

61%
-3% last 24h

40%
-6% last 24h
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