Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

37%
Stable · last 24h

72%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than October 31, 2026, the official minutes (procès‑verbal) of a City of Nice municipal council meeting or an official press release from Ville de Nice or Métropole Nice Côte d'Azur records a formal vote that adopts and publishes an operative decision or ordinance making public transport services run by the city or metropolitan transport authority free of charge for residents aged 65 or older as a general entitlement. NO otherwise. Votes that only approve studies or pilots, grant limited discounts, restrict free travel to a specific area or time, or make benefits means‑tested or conditional do not count as YES. The decision should appear in the Ville de Nice or Métropole publications, and local reporting such as Nice‑Matin, France Bleu Azur or Franceinfo is acceptable as corroboration.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against franceinfo.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 72%, based on 27 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeline and the strict conditions for approval, it's unlikely that a formal vote will materialize by the deadline. So I'll say NO on this one.

37%
Stable · last 24h

59%
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49%
Stable · last 24h

79%
+16% last 24h

43%
-3% last 24h

48%
+10% last 24h
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