Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if on August 17, 2026 (local date in France) there is public, contemporaneous reporting or an official announcement stating that Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was physically present in the department of Gironde and took part in a public event that day described as the launch of the mission 'reconstruction et adaptation des territoires sinistrés par les incendies'. Preferably this is confirmed by an official Matignon press release or a Prefecture of Gironde announcement and corroborated by wire reporting such as AFP or by national outlets. If he appears only remotely, or the event was postponed or cancelled for that date, the market resolves NO. If press reports conflict, the market resolves according to an official Matignon press release or, if none exists, consistent contemporaneous reporting by at least two independent national wires or outlets.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timeframe, it's unlikely Lecornu will make the trip unless something is officially confirmed soon. Watch for a Matignon announcement or media coverage; otherwise, I’d bet against it.

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29%
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