Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

14%
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64%
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YES if, in the most recent voting‑intention poll listed on the Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the 2027 Mexican legislative election" as of 00:00 on September 1, 2026 (Central Time, UTC−6), the numeric percentage shown for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is strictly greater than the numeric percentage shown for Movimiento Ciudadano (MC). Otherwise the market resolves NO, including if the most recent poll does not provide a separate numeric percentage for either PRI or MC (for example a dash, "Did not exist", or only an alliance total), or if the two percentages are identical.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 64%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the latest polls, PRI is at 10.2% while Movimiento Ciudadano is at 9.0%. With just over two weeks to go, it’s likely PRI will maintain a lead, so yes looks good.

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55%
Stable · last 24h

68%
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66%
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82%
Stable · last 24h

26%
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