Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
Stable · last 24h

41%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, in the single most-recent "Main voting-intention" poll row on the Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the 2027 Mexican legislative election" that is present on the page by 00:00 on 7 September 2026 (Central Time, UTC−6), the numeric percentage shown for PRI is strictly greater than the numeric percentage shown for MC. If the two percentages are identical, or if either party's percentage is not separately reported or is non-numeric on that poll row, the market resolves NO. If multiple poll rows share the page's most-recent date, use the topmost of those rows.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 7, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith PRI at 10.2% and MC at 9.0% in the latest poll, it's a narrow lead. Given their proximity, I think PRI will hold on and surpass MC by the time this resolves.

10%
Stable · last 24h

66%
Stable · last 24h

52%
-9% last 24h

23%
-17% last 24h

24%
-9% last 24h

29%
-8% last 24h
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