PoliticsOpened Jul 21 · Results Aug 4

Will PP be ahead of PSOE in Spain's polls on August 5?

70%

Stable · last 24h

📊 62 bettors💎 1.5K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Aug 4

🤖 Context

YES if the topmost poll row in the "Main voting‑intention" table on the English Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election" shows a strictly higher numeric percentage for Partido Popular (PP) than for the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) when the page is fetched at or after 00:00 on August 5, 2026 (Central European Summer Time). Otherwise NO. If the table is missing or the top row lacks numeric percentages for PP or PSOE, or if the two percentages are exactly equal to the precision shown, the market resolves NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

70%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: the topmost poll row in the 'Main voting‑intention' table on the specified Wikipedia page, as displayed when fetched at or after 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00, must show PP strictly greater than PSOE. Target fetch time: >= 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00 (the prompt's current time 2026-08-04T22:00:58.643Z = 2026-08-05T00:00:58.643+02:00, which meets the requirement). Observed topmost poll row from supplied data: EM-Analytics/Electomanía (fieldwork 30 Jun–1 Aug 2026) shows PP = 32.5 and PSOE = 27.2. Comparison: 32.5 > 27.2 (strict). Both percentages are present and not equal to the displayed precision, so the market resolves YES.

Source: en.wikipedia.org