Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 or greater occur in Indonesia?

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57%
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YES if the tropical cyclone designated "Potential Tropical Cyclone Five" (PTC-Five) is publicly reported to have made landfall inside the political boundaries of Texas or Louisiana no later than 00:00 on September 2, 2026 (CDT). "Made landfall" means the storm's center crossed the coastline and that crossing is stated in an operational advisory or advisory-level statement from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or NOAA, or is reported by major national news outlets quoting those agencies. If sources disagree, the NHC's operational advisory or post-storm report takes precedence. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 57%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just over 35 hours left, PTC-Five is likely to make landfall given the current trajectory. The NHC's updates suggest it’s gaining strength closer to the coast.

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50%
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41%
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70%
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70%
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27%
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