Will Popocatépetl send an ash plume or ashfall over north/west Guerrero or south Michoacán?

🤖 Context

YES if between 10:00 PM on August 16, 2026 and 10:00 AM on August 17, 2026 inclusive, local Mexico time, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA-SMN), CENAPRED, or the Universidad de Colima's CUEV publishes an advisory, bulletin, or notice explicitly stating that Popocatépetl produced an exhalation or emission that contained volcanic ash ("ceniza") and that ashfall or an ash plume affected any part of the north or west of the State of Guerrero or the south of the State of Michoacán. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 51%, based on 12 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

51%

Predictions made

12

Credits staked

255

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 16, 2026

Closes

Aug 17, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 17, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 17, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 51% and NO 49%, based on 12 predictions and 255 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl send an ash plume or ashfall over north/west Guerrero or south Michoacán?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl send an ash plume or ashfall over north/west Guerrero or south Michoacán?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.