ScienceOpened Jul 27 · Results Jul 27

Will Popocatépetl's alert level be different from "AMARILLO FASE 2" (yellow level, moderate activity) before July 27, 2026?

33%

Stable · last 24h

📊 11 bettors💎 220 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 27

🤖 Context

YES if the Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED) publishes on its official site or in an official CENAPRED bulletin an alert level for Popocatépetl that is not exactly the text "AMARILLO FASE 2" (case-insensitive) by 9:58 AM Central Time on July 27, 2026. Otherwise NO. If CENAPRED posts multiple statements before that time, the most recent CENAPRED bulletin or statement decides.

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How this market resolved

33%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 67% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: The supplied official CENAPRED publications in the evidence list the Popocatépetl Semáforo as "AMARILLO FASE 2" on dates at or before the cutoff and none show a different text. Example: CENAPRED's own report for 25 July 2026 states "El Semáforo de Alerta Volcánica del Popocatépetl se encuentra en AMARILLO FASE 2" (CENAPRED, 2026-07-25). An SMN/CONAGUA Aviso Especial (Emisión 09:58) of 26 July 2026 likewise reports the semáforo as "AMARILLO FASE 2". No CENAPRED source among the provided evidence shows any other alert-text at or before 2026-07-27 09:58 CT, so according to the supplied CENAPRED materials the alert text was not different from "AMARILLO FASE 2".

Source: gob.mx