Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall in the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, or Hidalgo?

🤖 Context

YES if, on or before 09:00 Central Time on September 8, 2026, an official Mexican agency (for example CENAPRED, SMN/CONAGUA, SEGOB, or a state/municipal Protección Civil) publicly confirms Popocatépetl produced an exhalation that deposited volcanic ash (visible accumulation on ground or surfaces) in any municipality of the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, or Hidalgo, or if at least two independent reputable news organisations report ashfall in those states attributed to Popocatépetl before that time. NO otherwise. Ash observed only aloft or reports of a plume with no ground deposition do not count.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 66%, based on 5 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

66%

Predictions made

5

Credits staked

95

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 8, 2026

Closes

Sep 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 8, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 66% and NO 34%, based on 5 predictions and 95 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall in the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, or Hidalgo?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall in the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, or Hidalgo?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.