Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall in any municipality of Mexico City, Estado de México, or Morelos on August 13?

🤖 Context

YES if, at any time during the Mexico City local calendar day August 13, 2026 (00:00 through 23:59:59, Mexico City local time, UTC−06:00), an official bulletin or public statement from CENAPRED, SMN/CONAGUA, or the civil protection authorities of Ciudad de México, Estado de México, or Morelos, OR explicit reporting in at least two independent reputable news outlets, states that ashfall (explicitly described as "caída de ceniza", "ashfall", or tephra deposition) from Popocatépetl was observed on the ground in one or more named municipalities of Ciudad de México, Estado de México, or Morelos. Statements that report only "vapor", "gas", or "exhalations" without ash deposition do NOT count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 52%, based on 9 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

52%

Predictions made

9

Credits staked

154

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 13, 2026

Closes

Aug 13, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 14, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 13, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 52% and NO 48%, based on 9 predictions and 154 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall in any municipality of Mexico City, Estado de México, or Morelos on August 13?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl produce ashfall in any municipality of Mexico City, Estado de México, or Morelos on August 13?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.