Will Popocatépetl produce an exhalation containing volcanic ash?

🤖 Context

YES if one or more publicly available sources explicitly report that Popocatépetl produced at least one exhalation containing volcanic ash (explicitly described as "ceniza", "ash" or tephra, or shown as an ash plume in ash-detection satellite products) at any time between 9:00 PM on August 10, 2026 and 9:00 AM on August 11, 2026, Mexico City local time. Preferred sources are CENAPRED and the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA). Adjudicators may also accept NOAA/GOES ash-detection satellite products or corroborating reports from at least two independent national or international news organizations. If the only public claims are uncorroborated social-media posts, sources explicitly report only steam/gas, or all reports place any ash outside the stated interval, the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 11, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 86%, based on 18 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

86%

Predictions made

18

Credits staked

392

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 10, 2026

Closes

Aug 11, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 11, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 11, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 86% and NO 14%, based on 18 predictions and 392 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl produce an exhalation containing volcanic ash?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl produce an exhalation containing volcanic ash?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.