Will Popocatépetl have emitted ash since the previous advisory?

🤖 Context

YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) or the Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED) publishes on its official website an advisory or technical bulletin issued no later than 14:03 on August 27, 2026 that explicitly states Popocatépetl emitted volcanic ash since the previous advisory. YES also if at least two independent Mexican news websites with free access report ash emission during that interval and explicitly cite SMN, CENAPRED, or CONAGUA. Otherwise NO. If an official bulletin issued at or before that time explicitly states only steam/gases (no ash) or issues a formal retraction, the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 27, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 4 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

38%

Predictions made

4

Credits staked

50

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 27, 2026

Closes

Aug 27, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 27, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 27, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 27, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 38% and NO 62%, based on 4 predictions and 50 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl have emitted ash since the previous advisory?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl have emitted ash since the previous advisory?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.