Will Popocatépetl have an exhalation that included volcanic ash?

🤖 Context

YES if the first official technical notice or bulletin published by Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) or by CENAPRED at or after 10:00 AM on August 23, 2026 states that at least one exhalation or emission from Popocatépetl included volcanic ash or that an ash plume was detected. NO otherwise. Clear reports from major Mexican or international news outlets that plainly state an ash-producing exhalation also suffice as proof.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 34%, based on 13 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

34%

Predictions made

13

Credits staked

196

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 23, 2026

Closes

Aug 23, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 23, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 23, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 34% and NO 66%, based on 13 predictions and 196 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl have an exhalation that included volcanic ash?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl have an exhalation that included volcanic ash?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.