Will Popocatépetl emit volcanic ash?

🤖 Context

YES if, between 10:00 AM on August 22, 2026 and 10:00 AM on August 23, 2026 inclusive, CENAPRED or the Mexican National Meteorological Service (SMN/CONAGUA) issues a bulletin or advisory, or a major Mexican news outlet publishes a report, that explicitly states Popocatépetl produced one or more exhalations that contained volcanic ash ("ceniza") or otherwise explicitly reports ash emissions from Popocatépetl. Otherwise NO. Communications that mention only steam, gas, or indeterminate emissions without explicit confirmation of ash resolve NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 11 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

11

Credits staked

175

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 22, 2026

Closes

Aug 22, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 23, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 22, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 11 predictions and 175 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl emit volcanic ash?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl emit volcanic ash?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.