Will Popocatépetl deposit ash in Mexico City on August 21?

🤖 Context

YES if, by the resolution date, at least one publicly available official bulletin, communique, or mainstream Mexican news article quoting an official source explicitly states that volcanic ash from Popocatépetl was observed on the ground or deposited within the administrative boundaries of Mexico City at any time between 00:00 and 23:59:59 (local time) on August 21, 2026. Preferred sources include the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres (CENAPRED‑SEGOB), or the Centro Universitario de Estudios Vulcanológicos of the Universidad de Colima (UCOL‑CUEV). Unverified social‑media posts without citation to an official agency or a credible news outlet do not count, and reports that state only steam/gas or an ash plume aloft with no observed ground deposition count as NO. If an authoritative agency issues and later retracts an ash‑deposition confirmation before the resolution date, use the agency’s final public statement as of the resolution date.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 0 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

50%

Predictions made

0

Credits staked

0

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 21, 2026

Closes

Aug 21, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 22, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 21, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 22, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 50% and NO 50%, based on 0 predictions and 0 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Popocatépetl deposit ash in Mexico City on August 21?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Popocatépetl deposit ash in Mexico City on August 21?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.