Will Popocatépetl cause ashfall in any municipality of Puebla on October 2?

🤖 Context

YES if there is a public report that ash from Popocatépetl was observed or deposited in any municipality in the State of Puebla between 02:00 and 14:00 (local time) on October 2, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise NO. • Reports must state ash was observed or deposited and describe it as ash, ashfall, ash deposition, or equivalent. • Satellite plume detections or modeled ash trajectories alone do not count. • An explicit official statement from CENAPRED, SMN, CENACOM, or Puebla state or municipal civil-protection offices denying ash deposition in Puebla during the window settles NO. • Source: CENAPRED, SMN, CENACOM, Puebla state or municipal civil-protection offices, or at least two independent news outlets that cite an official source.

Key facts

Crowd probability

55%

Predictions made

13

Credits staked

283

Comments

1

Opened

Oct 2, 2026

Closes

Oct 2, 2026

Resolved

Oct 3, 2026

Outcome

Yes

Resolution source

milenio.com