Will Pete Newman (Reform UK) get at least 5% of the valid vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

🤖 Context

Resolves YES if, when the Returning Officer's official count for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election held on 8 October 2026 is declared, the votes recorded for Pete Newman (standing for Reform UK) are greater than or equal to 5.0% of the total valid votes counted. Resolves NO otherwise, and also if the by-election is not held on 8 October 2026. The Returning Officer's published vote counts (the local authority's official results) are the authoritative source and should be used to compute the 5.0% threshold.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 403 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

44%

Predictions made

403

Credits staked

7,618

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 14, 2026

Closes

Oct 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 9, 2026

Resolution source

bbc.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 44% and NO 56%, based on 403 predictions and 7.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against bbc.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Pete Newman (Reform UK) get at least 5% of the valid vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Pete Newman (Reform UK) get at least 5% of the valid vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.