Will Tadej Pogačar win the Vuelta a España overall?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 28YES if Paul Seixas finishes in the top 3 overall classification of the 2026 Tour de France, as published in the official final general classification by ASO or the UCI. NO otherwise.
How markets are built and settled28%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The official ASO Tour de France rankings page (letour.fr) for Stage 21 (the final stage, 2026-07-26) lists Paul Seixas in 4th place in the final general classification, behind Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel and Isaac del Toro. Therefore he did not finish in the top three. Independent media reports in the supplied evidence corroborate the same final GC order.
Source: letour.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledD

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