Will OpenAI's market share be above 23.5%?

🤖 Context

YES if Kalshi finalizes ticker KXOPENSHARE-26SEP14-23.5 with an official YES. Kalshi's determination will be based on OpenRouter's published text market share by model author for the week of September 8, 2026, using OpenRouter's Monday 10:00 AM ET update, and that OpenRouter value must show OpenAI's market share strictly greater than 23.5%. If OpenRouter's week-of-September 8, 2026 chart does not separately identify 'OpenAI' (for example if it is grouped into 'Others'), the contract resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against kalshi.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 84%, based on 44 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

84%

Predictions made

44

Credits staked

851

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 9, 2026

Closes

Sep 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 14, 2026

Resolution source

kalshi.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 14, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 84% and NO 16%, based on 44 predictions and 851 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against kalshi.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will OpenAI's market share be above 23.5%?” real-money betting?

No. “Will OpenAI's market share be above 23.5%?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.