TechResults Aug 16

Will OpenAI experience another major outage before August 15, 2026?

44%

Stable · last 24h

📊 394 bettors💎 9.6K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Aug 16

🤖 Context

This market resolves to yes if OpenAI experiences a major outage, defined as a service disruption lasting more than 30 minutes, at any time before August 15, 2026. Multiple independent reports documented such disruptions before that date, including an Android Authority article on August 10, 2026 that says reports began around 8:20 AM ET and that OpenAI’s status page showed elevated error rates while the article was live, and corroborating reports from The Times of India and IT-Branschen (the latter on July 26, 2026). Those facts show a disruption that lasted longer than 30 minutes, so the condition is met and the market resolves to yes.

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How this market resolved

Yes

44%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 56% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Multiple independent sources in the supplied evidence report significant OpenAI/ChatGPT service disruptions before 2026-08-15. Android Authority’s Aug 10, 2026 article (posted 10:23 AM ET) states reports began around 8:20 AM ET and that OpenAI’s status page showed elevated error rates while the article was live, indicating the disruption persisted well over 30 minutes. Times of India and IT-Branschen also reported large-scale/global ChatGPT outages (the IT-Branschen piece dated July 26, 2026), corroborating that OpenAI experienced at least one major outage prior to 2026-08-15.

Source: androidauthority.com

Key facts

Crowd probability: 44%
Predictions made: 394
Credits staked: 9,647
Comments: 0
Opened: Jul 3, 2026
Closes: Aug 15, 2026
Resolved: Aug 16, 2026
Outcome: Yes
Resolution source: androidauthority.com, timesofindia.indiatimes.com, itbranschen.com

🔍 Sources

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