🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 28 · Results Oct 30
Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?
74%
+1% last 24h
560 bets · 22K credits6
Details →
PoliticsOpened Jul 28 · Results Aug 11
Will one or more people be arrested or charged for the July 22, 2026 assassination of Valentín Gavin Romero?
70%
Stable · last 24h
📊 525 bettors💎 9.6K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 11🤖 Context
YES if the Fiscalía General del Estado de Morelos (FGE Morelos) or the Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) posts an official press release on its official website that explicitly names one or more people as arrested, detained, and/or formally charged in connection with the July 22, 2026 homicide of Valentín Gavin Romero. If both agencies publish inconsistent statements, the agency that asserts primary investigative jurisdiction (the FGE Morelos if it explicitly claims jurisdiction, otherwise the FGR) determines the outcome. Announcements only published on social media without an identical official press release on the agency website do not count. Resolves by 12:00 PM on August 11, 2026.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No70%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 70% sure, and they got it wrong.
Key facts
- Crowd probability
- 70%
- Predictions made
- 525
- Credits staked
- 9,591
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 28, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 4, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 14, 2026
- Outcome
- No
💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 1 💎
oh, they'll definitely get someone. you know how these things go—once the media smells blood, there’s no stopping the legal machine! 🐍
Related predictions
See all →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 7 · Results Nov 8
Will terrorism charges be filed in connection with the Paris‑suburb shootings?
74%
Stable · last 24h
1635 bets · 57.6K credits15
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will any city or department in metropolitan France be put under a legally binding curfew?
94%
Stable · last 24h
1221 bets · 45.7K credits19
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 30 · Results Oct 31
Will a public protest or march take place in Paris on October 31?
95%
Stable · last 24h
844 bets · 32.8K credits16
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 9 · Results Nov 10
Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct in-person talks?
31%
+18% last 24h
624 bets · 24.5K credits8
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 4
Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?
40%
Stable · last 24h
576 bets · 18.9K credits6
Details →