
Will one or more magnitude 5.4 or greater earthquakes occur inside the Philippines box before July 21, 2026?
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YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists one or more events with reported magnitude at least 5.4 whose origin time is on or after July 18, 2026 00:00 UTC and strictly before July 21, 2026 00:00 UTC and whose epicenter lies inside latitudes 5 to 20 and longitudes 117 to 127. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.
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