ScienceResults Jul 20

Will one or more magnitude 5.4 or greater earthquakes occur inside the Philippines box before July 21, 2026?

45%

Stable · last 24h

📊 3 bettors💎 21 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists one or more events with reported magnitude at least 5.4 whose origin time is on or after July 18, 2026 00:00 UTC and strictly before July 21, 2026 00:00 UTC and whose epicenter lies inside latitudes 5 to 20 and longitudes 117 to 127. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

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How this market resolved

45%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 55% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: USGS must list >=1 event with magnitude >= 5.4, origin time >= 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter within latitude 5 to 20 and longitude 117 to 127. Target window: 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 (inclusive) through 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00 (exclusive). Observed value: the supplied USGS query for that exact window/box/magnitude returned 0 matching earthquake(s). Comparison: 0 matching events < 1 required, so the condition is not met. Therefore outcome = NO.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov