Will North Korea conduct an ICBM-class ballistic missile test?

🤖 Context

YES if no later than September 2, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news organizations (for example AP, Reuters, BBC, NHK, Yonhap) report that North Korea conducted a ballistic missile launch they identify as an intercontinental-range/ICBM-class test. A North Korean state media announcement corroborated by at least two independent outlets also counts. Shorter-range tests not described as ICBM-class by multiple authoritative outlets do not count, and a failed launch still counts if it was publicly launched and reported as ICBM-class.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 21 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

43%

Predictions made

21

Credits staked

421

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 19, 2026

Closes

Sep 2, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 2, 2026

Resolution source

apnews.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 2, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 2, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 43% and NO 57%, based on 21 predictions and 421 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against apnews.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will North Korea conduct an ICBM-class ballistic missile test?” real-money betting?

No. “Will North Korea conduct an ICBM-class ballistic missile test?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.