🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 3
Will tropical cyclone Karina reach Saffir‑Simpson Category 4 intensity?
81%
+40% last 24h
2510 bets · 78.5K credits8
Details →
ScienceResults Sep 2
Will NOAA confirm the start of an El Niño by August 31, 2026?
62%
Stable · last 24h
📊 96 bettors💎 2.2K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 2🤖 Context
The market required that NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center officially declare an El Niño event active by 23:59 UTC on August 31, 2026. The Climate Prediction Center listed the ENSO Alert System Status as "El Niño Advisory" and wrote "El Niño is present" in its ENSO Diagnostic Discussion dated August 13, 2026, and NOAA issued an official press release on June 11, 2026 announcing that El Niño had developed and that an El Niño Advisory was issued. Because these official CPC and NOAA products show an El Niño was declared active before 23:59 UTC on August 31, 2026, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes62%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) explicitly listed the ENSO Alert System Status as “El Niño Advisory” and stated “El Niño is present” in its ENSO Diagnostic Discussion dated 2026-08-13. NOAA’s official press release (June 11, 2026) also announced that El Niño had developed and an El Niño Advisory was issued. These official CPC/NOAA products show CPC had officially declared an El Niño event active prior to 23:59 UTC on 2026-08-31.
Source: cpc.ncep.noaa.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 62%
- Predictions made
- 96
- Credits staked
- 2,209
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- May 31, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 1, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 2, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- cpc.ncep.noaa.gov, noaa.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 3 comments
- 🚀@mick7910Bet Yes· 5 💎
It seems confirmed
- 🚀@aaronveraBet Yes· 80 💎
Si, está claro que ésto se cumplirá 🥵
- 🚀@aaronveraBet Yes· 80 💎
The kid is coming 🔥🥵
Related predictions
See all →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 10 · Results Sep 11
Will tropical cyclone Lowell be upgraded to hurricane status (Category 1 or higher)?
68%
Stable · last 24h
67 bets · 1.6K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 10 · Results Sep 11
Will Hurricane Karina make landfall on any landmass?
59%
Stable · last 24h
75 bets · 2.2K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 9
Will Hurricane Karina reach Category 5 strength?
67%
Stable · last 24h
221 bets · 5.1K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 7
Will Phantom Ranch be closed to overnight stays on September 7?
70%
-1% last 24h
2 bets · 80 credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 5 · Results Sep 6
Will the Ross Fire in Palo Pinto and Jack counties be at least 50% contained?
75%
Stable · last 24h
2 bets · 20 credits1
Details →