Will NOAA confirm a “super” El Niño (very strong El Niño) for Oct 2026–Feb 2027?

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Climate Prediction Center or NOAA officially classifies the upcoming El Niño as “very strong” (i.e. sea‑surface temperature anomaly ≥ 2 °C) covering any part of October 2026 through February 2027. NO otherwise.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Feb 15, 2027, and the market is expected to resolve on Feb 16, 2027. The outcome will be settled against livescience.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 48%, based on 20 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

48%

Predictions made

20

Credits staked

372

Comments

0

Opened

May 18, 2026

Closes

Feb 15, 2027

Expected resolution

Feb 16, 2027

Resolution source

livescience.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Feb 15, 2027, and it's expected to resolve on Feb 16, 2027.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 48% and NO 52%, based on 20 predictions and 372 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against livescience.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will NOAA confirm a “super” El Niño (very strong El Niño) for Oct 2026–Feb 2027?” real-money betting?

No. “Will NOAA confirm a “super” El Niño (very strong El Niño) for Oct 2026–Feb 2027?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.